/ THE PRE-IPO RISK INDEX™ · VOLUME I · Q2 2026

Letter grades for every
major pre-IPO company.

A unified rating system for the largest U.S. still-private companies — built from PACER federal court filings, secondary-market transaction data, S-1 prospectus disclosures, regulatory inquiries, and Round Z proprietary diligence. 75 companies. Five subscore dimensions. Quarterly refresh.

75 companies rated 5 subscore dimensions 6 independent data sources Q2 2026 edition · next update Sept 30, 2026
Grade
Company
Valuation
Score
Risk Band
C+
OpenAI
AI Models
$300B (Q1 2026)
68/100
Mixed
→
B
Anthropic
AI Models
$60B (Q1 2026)
80/100
Good
→
D+
xAI
AI Models
$50B (Q4 2025)
48/100
High Risk
→
B-
Mistral AI
AI Models
$6.2B (Q3 2025)
75/100
Good
→
C+
Cohere
AI Models
$5.5B (Q3 2025)
66/100
Mixed
→
C
Perplexity AI
AI Search
$9B (Q4 2025)
61/100
Mixed
→
B
Hugging Face
AI Infrastructure
$4.5B (Q1 2024)
81/100
Good
→
C
Cerebras Systems
AI Infrastructure
$8.1B (Q3 2024)
60/100
Mixed
→
B-
Together AI
AI Infrastructure
$3.3B (Q1 2025)
74/100
Good
→
C+
Groq
AI Infrastructure
$2.8B (Q3 2024)
65/100
Mixed
→
C
Scale AI
AI Infrastructure
$14B (post-Meta investment, Q2 2025)
58/100
Mixed
→
B-
Glean
Enterprise AI
$4.6B (Q4 2024)
76/100
Good
→
B
Sierra
Enterprise AI
$4.5B (Q1 2025)
80/100
Good
→
C+
SpaceX
Space / Defense
$350B (Q4 2025)
67/100
Mixed
→
A-
Stripe
Fintech
$91.5B (Q1 2025)
90/100
Excellent
→
B+
Databricks
Data Infrastructure
$62B (Q4 2024)
85/100
Good
→
C+
Discord
Consumer Social
$15B (Q4 2021, secondary 2024)
63/100
Mixed
→
B+
Canva
Consumer SaaS
$32B (Q1 2024 secondary)
85/100
Good
→
B
Plaid
Fintech Infrastructure
$13.4B (Q1 2021, secondary 2024)
82/100
Good
→
B
Notion
Productivity SaaS
$10B (Q3 2021, secondary 2024)
82/100
Good
→
C+
Substack
Media SaaS
$650M (Q2 2024 secondary)
62/100
Mixed
→
B-
Replit
Developer Tools
$1.16B (Q2 2023, secondary 2024-25)
74/100
Good
→
B
Vercel
Developer Tools
$3.25B (Q1 2024 secondary)
82/100
Good
→
A-
Linear
Productivity SaaS
$1.25B (Q2 2024)
90/100
Excellent
→
C+
Brex
Fintech
$12.3B (Q1 2022, secondary suggests reset)
63/100
Mixed
→
B+
Ramp
Fintech
$13B (Q2 2025)
86/100
Good
→
B
Mercury
Fintech
$3.5B (Q2 2024)
80/100
Good
→
C+
Klarna
Fintech
$15B (Q3 2025 IPO discussions)
61/100
Mixed
→
C+
Chime
Fintech
$25B (Q3 2021, IPO 2024-25 discussions)
62/100
Mixed
→
B
Anduril Industries
Defense Tech
$14B (Q2 2024)
82/100
Good
→
B-
Shield AI
Defense Tech
$2.7B (Q2 2024)
74/100
Good
→
C+
Hadrian
Defense Manufacturing
$2.5B (Q3 2024)
67/100
Mixed
→
C
Saronic Technologies
Defense Tech (Maritime)
$4B (Q1 2025)
62/100
Mixed
→
C+
Vannevar Labs
Defense Tech (Intel)
$700M (Q3 2024)
68/100
Mixed
→
C-
Relativity Space
Space
$4.2B (Q1 2021, restructured 2024)
52/100
Mixed
→
D
Neuralink
Medical Device
$5B (Q3 2023, secondary 2024)
42/100
High Risk
→
D+
The Boring Company
Infrastructure
$7B (Q2 2022, no refresh)
47/100
High Risk
→
C
Epic Games
Consumer Gaming
$32B (Q1 2022, no refresh)
59/100
Mixed
→
D
ByteDance / TikTok
Consumer Social
$300B (Q4 2024 secondary)
45/100
High Risk
→
D
Shein
Consumer Retail
$66B (Q1 2023; targeted ~$50B 2024-25 IPO)
43/100
High Risk
→
A-
Figma
Design SaaS
$12.5B (Q3 2024 secondary)
89/100
Excellent
→
A-
Wiz
Cybersecurity
$32B (Google acquisition pending 2025)
90/100
Excellent
→
D+
Character.AI
AI Consumer
$5B (2023); Google licensing deal 2024
48/100
High Risk
→
D+
Inflection AI
AI Consumer
$4B (2023); Microsoft acquihire 2024
47/100
High Risk
→
F
Adept AI (Acquihired)
AI Consumer
$1B (2023); Amazon acquihire 2024
24/100
Critical
→
B
Runway
AI Video
$3B (Q2 2024)
80/100
Good
→
B+
ElevenLabs
AI Voice
$3.3B (Q3 2025)
85/100
Good
→
B
Synthesia
AI Video
$2.1B (Q3 2024)
81/100
Good
→
C+
Suno
AI Music
$500M (Q2 2024)
63/100
Mixed
→
B
Harvey
Legal AI
$3B (Q3 2025)
82/100
Good
→
B-
Anyscale
AI Infrastructure
$1B (Q4 2021, secondary 2024)
74/100
Good
→
B-
Lambda
AI Infrastructure
$1.5B (Q1 2024)
75/100
Good
→
D+
Carta
Fintech
$7.4B (2021; meaningfully reset 2024)
48/100
High Risk
→
D
Bolt
Fintech
$11B (2022; targeted ~$14B in struggling 2024 round)
42/100
High Risk
→
B
Modern Treasury
Fintech
$2.2B (Q1 2024)
80/100
Good
→
B-
Unit
Fintech
$1.2B (Q4 2021, refreshed 2024)
73/100
Good
→
C-
Pipe
Fintech
$2B (2021; reset to ~$500M secondary)
55/100
Mixed
→
B-
Astranis
Space (Geosats)
$1.6B (Q2 2024)
74/100
Good
→
C+
Capella Space
Space (Earth Observation)
$700M (Q4 2022, struggling 2024)
66/100
Mixed
→
B-
Stoke Space
Space (Reusable Rockets)
$1.4B (Q4 2024)
75/100
Good
→
C+
Firefly Aerospace
Space (Launch)
$2B (Q3 2024)
68/100
Mixed
→
C
Sierra Space
Space (Commercial ISS)
$5.3B (Q2 2023, no refresh)
60/100
Mixed
→
B-
Varda Space Industries
Space (In-Space Manufacturing)
$900M (Q1 2025)
74/100
Good
→
B
Ursa Major Technologies
Defense (Rocket Engines)
$1B (Q3 2024)
78/100
Good
→
C
Axiom Space
Space (Commercial ISS)
$2B (Q4 2023, struggling 2024-25)
59/100
Mixed
→
B+
Faire
B2B Wholesale Marketplace
$12.6B (Q4 2022, secondary 2024)
85/100
Good
→
C+
StockX
Consumer Resale Marketplace
$3.8B (Q1 2021; secondary 2024 suggests material reset)
63/100
Mixed
→
C
GOAT Group
Consumer Resale Marketplace
$3.7B (Q2 2021, secondary 2024 reset)
60/100
Mixed
→
B-
Whatnot
Live Shopping
$5B (Q1 2024)
76/100
Good
→
C
Verily Life Sciences
Healthcare AI
~$22B (last formal — Alphabet subsidiary)
58/100
Mixed
→
B-
Color Health
Healthcare
$1.5B (Q1 2024, AI repositioning)
74/100
Good
→
B
Lyra Health
Healthcare (Mental Health)
$5.6B (Q3 2022, secondary 2024 suggests stable)
81/100
Good
→
C+
Ro (Roman / Rory / Zero)
Healthcare (Consumer Telehealth)
$7B (Q1 2022; secondary 2024 reset)
62/100
Mixed
→
B
Chainalysis
Crypto Infrastructure
$8.6B (Q2 2022, secondary 2024 stable)
82/100
Good
→
B-
Fireblocks
Crypto Infrastructure
$8B (Q1 2022, secondary 2024 modest reset)
76/100
Good
→

Independent & transparent.

The Risk Index is built from public regulatory filings, PACER docket data, S-1 prospectus disclosures, and Round Z's proprietary diligence database. Companies cannot pay to improve their grade — methodology and source data are published in full at /methodology.

Updated quarterly.

Each quarter we re-run the Index against the latest court filings, secondary-market transactions, regulatory inquiries, and disclosure events. Grade changes are timestamped and historical grade trajectories are preserved on each company profile.

Used by institutions.

The Risk Index API is licensed by registered investment advisors, family offices, secondary-market brokers, insurance carriers, and consumer-protection regulators. See /api for institutional access.

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